Destined for War: Can China and the United States Escape Thucydides’s Trap? – The Atlantic

In 12 of 16 cases [in which a rising power confronted a ruling power] over the past 500 years, the result was war. When the parties avoided war, it required huge, painful adjustments in attitudes and actions on the part not just of the challenger but also the challenged.

Never before in history has a nation risen so far, so fast. In 1980, China’s economy was smaller than the Netherlands’. Last year, the increment of growth in China’s GDP was equal to the Dutch economy.

As Xi Jinping himself said during a visit to Seattle on Tuesday, “There is no such thing as the so-called Thucydides Trap in the world. But should major countries time and again make the mistakes of strategic miscalculation, they might create such traps for themselves.”

Source: Destined for War: Can China and the United States Escape Thucydides’s Trap? – The Atlantic

 
I looked, but can not be sure that the article’s definition of “rising” includes “surpassing substantially”. That would be nice to know.

Analysis specifically of the post-nuclear age may be more relevant. It is less likely that two nuclear powers will directly engage in a hot war because there would not be 100,000 casualties – it would be trivial skirmishes, or millions of casualties.

It is an interesting article with good support for an argument that we cannot hand wave “oh that’s impossible” – that we will have to actively work with China as it continues to demand a more important and powerful place in the world order, and China’s demands to alter the world order to China’s further benefit and preference.

Remember, it is not enough to be hit or insulted to be harmed, you must believe that you are being harmed. If someone succeeds in provoking you, realize that your mind is complicit in the provocation. Which is why it is essential that we not respond impulsively to impressions; take a moment before reacting, and you will find it easier to maintain control.

— Epictetus
The Art of Living

Apple, Google, and Microsoft are all solving the same problems – The Verge

Never mind the future, we need more diverse visions of the present

While their approaches and economic models differ, the near future that Apple, Google, and Microsoft perceive is remarkably similar.

True innovation requires the undertaking of significant risk, and the bigger a company becomes the more conservative it inevitably has to be. … Without the dual pressures of both the consumer and the stock market, and without a historic reputation to uphold, small startups are now the best engine for generating truly new and groundbreaking innovations.

The money that has kept flowing into tech over the past decade or two seems to have brought with it an added risk aversion. The wild innovation goes into one silo, the day-to-day moneymaking goes into another. Aren’t tech companies supposed to make money by innovating?

This decoupling of the traditional model for a tech business — where risk-taking and money-making go hand in hand — is leaving us with an uncomfortable degree of uniformity among the products and services offered by the biggest and most powerful companies.

Source: Apple, Google, and Microsoft are all solving the same problems – The Verge