Category: History

Destined for War: Can China and the United States Escape Thucydides’s Trap? – The Atlantic

In 12 of 16 cases [in which a rising power confronted a ruling power] over the past 500 years, the result was war. When the parties avoided war, it required huge, painful adjustments in attitudes and actions on the part not just of the challenger but also the challenged.

Never before in history has a nation risen so far, so fast. In 1980, China’s economy was smaller than the Netherlands’. Last year, the increment of growth in China’s GDP was equal to the Dutch economy.

As Xi Jinping himself said during a visit to Seattle on Tuesday, “There is no such thing as the so-called Thucydides Trap in the world. But should major countries time and again make the mistakes of strategic miscalculation, they might create such traps for themselves.”

Source: Destined for War: Can China and the United States Escape Thucydides’s Trap? – The Atlantic

 
I looked, but can not be sure that the article’s definition of “rising” includes “surpassing substantially”. That would be nice to know.

Analysis specifically of the post-nuclear age may be more relevant. It is less likely that two nuclear powers will directly engage in a hot war because there would not be 100,000 casualties – it would be trivial skirmishes, or millions of casualties.

It is an interesting article with good support for an argument that we cannot hand wave “oh that’s impossible” – that we will have to actively work with China as it continues to demand a more important and powerful place in the world order, and China’s demands to alter the world order to China’s further benefit and preference.

In Realtime: Saving 25,000 Manuals « ASCII by Jason Scott

a number of kind folks told me that an esteemed seller of manuals was going to be getting out of the business … It has been explained to me that they intend to throw them out next week. It’s a whole complicated story why, but it stems from the loss of the lease for the building and not enough of a business case to move it and set up another long-term storage.

But they’re being kind enough to allow me to try and take what I can, so that’s what I agreed to and what they’re up to.

These are very nice manuals, some dating back to the thirties. Many are of impeccable quality.

Source: In Realtime: Saving 25,000 Manuals « ASCII by Jason Scott

Appomattox and the Ongoing Civil War – The Atlantic

From Reconstruction to Jim Crow to the Civil Rights era to the present, Americans have fought over the great issues at the heart of the conflict.

Source: Appomattox and the Ongoing Civil War – The Atlantic

 

From comments: “The past is NOT as far away as people like to think.”

 

I think this is far more true than most people realize. The history professor really was not kidding when he said his class could be as useful as those from other professors, and not just if you want to be a history professor yourself.