Source: Is there a tension between creativity and accuracy? | Michael Nielsen
I believe there is a tension between behaviours which maximize accuracy and those which maximize creativity… A lot of important truths come from very irrational people.
Being overconfident in beliefs that most people hold is not at all the same as being overconfident in beliefs that few people hold.
To be creative, you need to recognize those barely formed thoughts, thoughts which are usually wrong and poorly formed in many ways, but which have some kernel of originality and importance and truth.